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Dead or Alive Finding the Origin of Caldera Unrest using Magma Reservoir Models

Caldera-forming volcanic eruptions can have severe impacts from the local to global scale. As vast quantities of magma are ejected during the eruption, they can trigger deadly pyroclastic density currents and lahars, release noxio... ver más

31/10/2022

ETH Zürich

201K€

Presupuesto del proyecto: 201K€

Líder del proyecto

EIDGENOESSISCHE TECHNISCHE HOCHSCHULE ZUERICH No se ha especificado una descripción o un objeto social para esta compañía.

Fecha límite participación Sin fecha límite de participación.

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Financiación concedida El organismo H2020 notifico la concesión del proyecto el día 2022-10-31

MSCA-IF-2019: Individual Fellowships

I+D

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5 Participantes

ETH Zürich

103.54K€ | Lider

CELAYA EMPARANZA Y GALDOS IN...

590.69K€ | Participante

ENERTRON

408.61K€ | Participante

IBERDROLA RENOVABLES ENERGIA

269.64K€ | Participante

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Duración del proyecto: 31 meses Fecha Inicio: 2020-03-17
Fecha Fin: 2022-10-31

Líder del proyecto

EIDGENOESSISCHE TECHNISCHE HOCHSCHULE ZUERICH No se ha especificado una descripción o un objeto social para esta compañía.

Presupuesto del proyecto 201K€

Fecha límite de participación Sin fecha límite de participación.

Descripción del proyecto Caldera-forming volcanic eruptions can have severe impacts from the local to global scale. As vast quantities of magma are ejected during the eruption, they can trigger deadly pyroclastic density currents and lahars, release noxious gases and even alter global climate. At many calderas, episodic unrest in the form of pronounced uplift, increased seismicity and elevated gas emissions raise concern over the potential for such destructive eruptions. However, it remains difficult to ascertain whether the unrest observations indicate (1) an injection of new magma into the crustal reservoir, which could increase its potential for explosive eruptions, or (2) a sudden release of magmatic volatiles from a cooling and crystallizing reservoir, which would remain unlikely to erupt explosively. In this proposed project, I will develop a physics-based model of a magma reservoir to determine the processes involved in magma injection and evolution that may lead to episodic unrest. Of particular interest is how gases migrate through the system and alter reservoir volume. The model will simulate the thermo-mechanical evolution of a two-dimensional, three-phase (solids, liquids, gas) magma reservoir. By leveraging emerging continuum frameworks for reactive transport modelling, this work will expand existing two-dimensional models to simulate three phases in varying proportions in a computationally efficient approach. The reservoir model will be coupled to ductile-to-brittle crustal deformation to understand the conditions that lead to episodic unrest. I will compare simulation results with time series observations of ground deformation and gas emissions from Laguna del Maule in Chile, thought to be undergoing magma injection, and Long Valley in the US, thought to have experienced punctuated gas release. Results will bridge the gap among current models of three-phase magma dynamics and will improve understanding of the eruption hazard implied by caldera unrest.

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