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HELIO4CAST

Financiado

Solving the Bz problem in heliospheric weather forecasting

A major unsolved problem in space weather involves predicting the solar wind at the Sun-Earth L1 point, specifically its speed and the north-south (Bz) magnetic field component. Knowledge of the future solar wind time evolution wo... ver más

31/08/2027

GEOSPHERE AUSTRIA

2M€

Presupuesto del proyecto: 2M€

Líder del proyecto

GEOSPHERE AUSTRIA BUNDESANSTALT FUR GEOLOGIE... No se ha especificado una descripción o un objeto social para esta compañía.

Financiación concedida El organismo HORIZON EUROPE notifico la concesión del proyecto el día 2022-06-23

Línea de financiación objetivo El proyecto se financió a través de la siguiente ayuda:

ERC-2021-COG: ERC CONSOLIDATOR GRANTS

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1 Participantes

GEOSPHERE AUSTRIA

2.00M€ | Lider

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Últimas noticias

29-11-2024: IDAE En las últimas 48 horas el Organismo IDAE ha otorgado 4 concesiones

29-11-2024: ECE En las últimas 48 horas el Organismo ECE ha otorgado 2 concesiones

29-11-2024: CMVAMADRID En las últimas 48 horas el Organismo CMVAMADRID ha otorgado 37 concesiones

Duración del proyecto: 62 meses Fecha Inicio: 2022-06-23
Fecha Fin: 2027-08-31

Presupuesto del proyecto 2M€

Descripción del proyecto A major unsolved problem in space weather involves predicting the solar wind at the Sun-Earth L1 point, specifically its speed and the north-south (Bz) magnetic field component. Knowledge of the future solar wind time evolution would allow us to drive any models for magnetospheric processes, such as the aurora, the radiation belts, the ionosphere or the currents induced in power lines with much higher reliability and forecast lead time than currently possible. Our modern society increasingly depends on space borne technology and predicting extreme space weather conditions at Earth is therefore of pivotal importance. Our hypothesis is that we can predict the strongest Bz fields in magnetic flux ropes in solar coronal mass ejection (CMEs) with a novel combination of hyper-fast semi-empirical models in our new HELIO4CAST simulation, capable of running millions of ensemble members within minutes. Due to the coherence of flux ropes, it will be possible to forecast geomagnetic storms with lead times of 12 hours or more. Additionally, for clarifying unsolved problems on the CME global shape and magnetic structure, a window of opportunity has opened at the start of solar cycle 25 with the successful launches and operations of Solar Orbiter, Parker Solar Probe, and BepiColombo, forming an unprecedented fleet of spacecraft to study CMEs. Groundbreaking numbers of multipoint lineup events, Solar Orbiter imaging for the first time from higher latitudes, and novel in situ data from Parker Solar Probe close to the Sun will lead to new discoveries. These unique observations in the solar wind will also deepen our knowledge of stellar CMEs. The team is lead by an accomplished PI with the necessary broad scientific expertise. This ERC project provides an unconventional, direct feedback loop between answering open scientific questions and the application of forecasts in real time that will bring decisive progress in making a reliable space weather prediction part of our daily lives.

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