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SkewPref

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Skewness Preferences Human attitudes toward rare high impact risks

Penny-picking in front of a steamroller describes the behavior of repeatedly taking risks with an unlikely but extreme downside in order to secure a small but likely benefit. Examples of penny-picking include risking one’s life by... ver más

29/02/2024

UHEI

918K€

Presupuesto del proyecto: 918K€

Líder del proyecto

RUPRECHTKARLSUNIVERSITAET HEIDELBERG No se ha especificado una descripción o un objeto social para esta compañía.

TRL 4-5

Fecha límite participación Sin fecha límite de participación.

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Financiación concedida El organismo H2020 notifico la concesión del proyecto el día 2024-02-29

ERC-2018-STG: ERC Starting Grant Scope:Objectives

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3 Participantes

UHEI

366.34K€ | Lider

JUAN Y JUAN INDUSTRIAL

646.24K€ | Participante

FRANKFURT SCHOOL OF FINANCE...

551.16K€ | Participante

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Duración del proyecto: 64 meses Fecha Inicio: 2018-10-23
Fecha Fin: 2024-02-29

Líder del proyecto

RUPRECHTKARLSUNIVERSITAET HEIDELBERG No se ha especificado una descripción o un objeto social para esta compañía.

TRL 4-5

Presupuesto del proyecto 918K€

Fecha límite de participación Sin fecha límite de participación.

Descripción del proyecto Penny-picking in front of a steamroller describes the behavior of repeatedly taking risks with an unlikely but extreme downside in order to secure a small but likely benefit. Examples of penny-picking include risking one’s life by driving too fast or blowing up financial bubbles by speculating that they will not burst just yet. Penny-picking suggests that people underweight rare, high-impact events when making their decisions. On the other hand, individuals overpay for lottery gambles and insurances alike, suggesting just the opposite—that people overweight rare, high-impact events. The goal of this project is to provide a fundamental understanding of humans’ skewness preferences—our attitudes toward rare, high-impact risks. I show that skewness preferences are much more influential on behavior than previously realized and thus must take a central place in the economic analysis of risk. The reason is that skewness preferences have unexpected and far-reaching implications in dynamic decision situations, and I will study their complex interaction with time. I pursue this research agenda in three steps. First, I focus on static, one-time decision situations and define skewness preferences formally. I show that the leading economic theories—often implicitly—assign first-order importance to skewness preferences and that this observation explains much of these theories’ success. Second, I study skewness preferences in dynamic settings and analyze their complex interaction with time preferences. I propose a new model that identifies the role of skewness for repeated risk-taking. Third, I test my theoretical contributions through experiments on rare, high-impact risks in static and repeated decision situations, using a relatively novel experimental technique to implement rare, high-impact events. Out of the theoretical explanations established, I seek to identify the fundamental reasons behind phenomena such as penny-picking or the underweighting-overweighting paradox.

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