BEFPREDICT
Financiado
Predictive Understanding of the effects of Global Change on Ecological Communiti...
Predictive Understanding of the effects of Global Change on Ecological Communities and Ecosystem Functions
The observed degradation in essential ecosystem services has catalysed a demand for biodiversity promoting policies. To implement them we need quantitative information on how ecosystem functions are changing due to the direct effe...
The observed degradation in essential ecosystem services has catalysed a demand for biodiversity promoting policies. To implement them we need quantitative information on how ecosystem functions are changing due to the direct effects of global change vs. effects mediated by changes in biodiversity. With BEFPREDICT, I will tackle this challenge by providing a novel framework for linking global change, through its effects on biodiversity, to ecosystem functions. My approach builds on three recent developments, each transformative in itself but so far essentially unlinked to each other. First, community ecology has significantly progressed our ability to predict how abiotic drivers shape biodiversity. Second, trait-based ecology offers a tool for learning mechanisms behind ecosystem functions. Third, methods developed by climate scientists and statisticians provide tools for predictive model comparison and assessment in ecology, which have so far largely been lacking. Building on these advances, I will: (Objective 1) develop novel predictive models of the joint distribution of species and ecosystem functions that build on community and trait-based ecology (JEF models); (Objective 2) develop a novel toolbox of model comparison and assessment methods for comparing and testing for the predictive limits of ecological models; (Objective 3) apply the JEF models to unique long-term observational datasets. Through this joint approach, I will tease apart the relative roles of direct effect of the abiotic environment on ecosystem functions and the effects mediated by changes in biodiversity. This proposal balances high risk and high gain by aiming at the truly ambitious goal of establish the scope and limits for quantitative predictions of ecosystem functioning. These conceptual and methodological breakthroughs will open new horizons for global change research and provide tools urgently needed for a transformative change to ecologically sustainable societies.
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Duración del proyecto: 64 meses
Fecha Inicio: 2023-12-11
Fecha Fin: 2029-04-30
Fecha Fin: 2029-04-30
Línea de financiación: concedida
El organismo HORIZON EUROPE notifico la concesión del proyecto el día 2023-12-11
Línea de financiación objetivo
El proyecto se financió a través de la siguiente ayuda:
ERC-2022-COG:
ERC CONSOLIDATOR GRANTS
Cerrada
hace 2 años
Presupuesto
El presupuesto total del proyecto asciende a
2M€
Líder del proyecto
HELSINGIN YLIOPISTO
No se ha especificado una descripción o un objeto social para esta compañía.
Perfil tecnológico
TRL
4-5
Perfil tecnológico
TRL
4-5