Innovating Works

POPCLIMA

Financiado
Population Dynamics under Global Climate Change
This study is the first to comprehensively address the impacts of climate change (CC) on population trends. Existing studies on population and CC focus either on the effects of population growth on CC or on identification of popul... This study is the first to comprehensively address the impacts of climate change (CC) on population trends. Existing studies on population and CC focus either on the effects of population growth on CC or on identification of populations at risks to climatic hazards. There is virtually no literature on the mechanisms and the extent to which CC affects and will affect demographic outcomes. It is even not clear whether CC may increase or decrease fertility, mortality and migration. Being the first study to comprehensively and systematically address this issue, this project is very timely given that CC impacts have already been felt and are forecast to be much stronger in the future. The project has four main objectives: 1) to study the way (direction and extent) in which CC influences demographic outcomes; 2) to examine the differential impacts of CC on subgroups of populations; 3) to identify the mechanisms through which CC influences demographic outcomes; 4) to forecast future population dynamics under climate change. The project will analyse fertility, mortality and migration separately, using a variety of methodologies and datasets. Results from these analyses will then be used to inform the population projections under future CC scenarios. Our methodological approach is innovative. We will utilise and combine geo-referenced climate, demographic and socioeconomic data from different data sources (surveys and social media data) at the individual-, regional and country-level. Structural equation models are employed to identify the causal pathways and machine learning method is used to handle large-scale data. Results will be particularly important for: 1) helping the scientific community in building more realistic scenarios about populations trends under the rapid pace of CC; 2) informing the international debate over the social costs of CC; and 3) providing a set of estimations useful to design better social and environmental policies. ver más
31/12/2026
UNIBO
2M€
Duración del proyecto: 68 meses Fecha Inicio: 2021-04-02
Fecha Fin: 2026-12-31

Línea de financiación: concedida

El organismo H2020 notifico la concesión del proyecto el día 2021-04-02
Línea de financiación objetivo El proyecto se financió a través de la siguiente ayuda:
ERC-2020-COG: ERC CONSOLIDATOR GRANTS
Cerrada hace 4 años
Presupuesto El presupuesto total del proyecto asciende a 2M€
Líder del proyecto
ALMA MATER STUDIORUM UNIVERSITA DI BOLOGNA No se ha especificado una descripción o un objeto social para esta compañía.
Perfil tecnológico TRL 4-5