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Political Lotteries in European Democratisation

Political lotteries randomly select individuals to take a political decision. Recently, lotteries have put citizens together to find solutions to today’s contentious, polarizing issues, such as disaffection, abortion reform, and c... ver más

30/04/2028

FONDATION NATIONAL...

1M€

Presupuesto del proyecto: 1M€

Líder del proyecto

FONDATION NATIONALE DES SCIENCES POLITIQUES No se ha especificado una descripción o un objeto social para esta compañía.

TRL 4-5

Financiación concedida El organismo HORIZON EUROPE notifico la concesión del proyecto el día 2023-03-15

ERC-2022-STG: ERC STARTING GRANTS Scope:Objectives

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Duración del proyecto: 61 meses Fecha Inicio: 2023-03-15
Fecha Fin: 2028-04-30

Líder del proyecto

FONDATION NATIONALE DES SCIENCES POLITIQUES No se ha especificado una descripción o un objeto social para esta compañía.

TRL 4-5

Presupuesto del proyecto 1M€

Descripción del proyecto Political lotteries randomly select individuals to take a political decision. Recently, lotteries have put citizens together to find solutions to today’s contentious, polarizing issues, such as disaffection, abortion reform, and climate change. What explains their varied success? Lotteries equalise opportunity of access to all. Random chance can strengthen those otherwise in the minority. A wider variety of opinions can also improve debate and reduce polarization. The ideal, but unfeasible experiment would randomly vary group characteristics, assign real political power, and observe effects over time. Instead, this project draws lessons from past experiments during democratisation in Europe - whereby legislators were randomly assigned to groups within legislatures - and experiments with lotteries in online citizens’ assemblies today. Lotteries ensured that minorities participated in deliberation in small groups, and were assigned influential legislative tasks. These natural experiments with lotteries have never before been investigated using modern statistical methods, and their role in opening access to politics is almost entirely absent from empirical studies of democratisation. This project compiles a novel, comparative dataset of these political lotteries, legislators, parliamentary activity and offices from different European countries. Next, the decisions of randomly assigned groups will be analysed within each natural experiment. A theory of debate in randomly drawn groups reducing polarization will be verified by cross-national comparison across experimental contexts, and in a present-day experiment that allows controlled conditions. By opening access to minorities and contributing to strong, deliberative party and committee systems, lotteries stabilised political conflict. They have the potential to do so again today. The research will help inform evidence-based innovation of our representative democracies, as experiments with lotteries have already begun.

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