Descripción del proyecto
CO2 EMISSIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY SCRUTINIZED, REGULATED AND PRICED. ALTHOUGH A POST-KYOTO AGREEMENT IS STILL BEING NEGOTIATED AND THE LAST TWO CONFERENCES OF PARTIES (COPS) HELD IN COPENHAGEN (COP15) AND CANCUN (COP16) HAVE LEFT MANY UNCERTAINTIES TO BE DISCUSSED FURTHER IN 2011, THERE IS A FIRM COMMITMENT FROM SOME DEVELOPED COUNTRIES TO REDUCE EMISSIONS BY 2020. FOR INSTANCE, THE EU HAS SET THE TARGET OF REDUCING ITS GREENHOUSE GASES (GHG) EMISSIONS BY 20-30%, JAPAN IS COMMITTED TO A REDUCTION OF 25%, AND THERE ARE SEVERAL REGIONAL INITIATIVES IN THE UNITED STATES. TO ACHIEVE THIS, WE CAN EXPECT A BATTERY OF CLIMATE POLICY MEASURES TO BE INTRODUCED, ALTHOUGH REGULATORY UNCERTAINTY LOOMS AT THE INTERNATIONAL LEVEL. AT THE SAME TIME, ENERGY DEMAND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE COMING DECADES WHILE DEREGULATION GATHERS PACE. THE ENERGY INDUSTRY WILL THUS BE CONSTRAINED BY THE EXTERNAL FORCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE INTERNAL ONE OF INDUSTRY EVOLUTION AND COMPETITION. INDEED, BOTH THESE FORCES INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER. TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS MAY BRING ABOUT IMPROVEMENTS IN FUEL CONSUMPTION AND CARBON EMISSIONS. HOWEVER, THE ACTUAL DEPLOYMENT OF THESE TECHNOLOGIES WILL DEPEND ON THE APPROPRIATE SET OF INCENTIVES, EITHER IN THE FORM OF A CARBON PRICE OR OTHER PUBLIC INSTRUMENTS. GOVERNMENTS WILL SCRUTINIZE DEVELOPMENTS IN THE ENERGY INDUSTRY WHEN SETTING ENVIRONMENTAL GOALS, WHILE INDUSTRY WILL LOOK AT GOVERNMENTS WHEN CONSIDERING STRATEGIC DECISIONS.THE AIM OF THIS PROJECT IS TO ANALYZE THESE INTERRELATIONS IN A THREE-DIMENSIONAL FRAMEWORK, AND IT IS STRUCTURED ACCORDINGLY: (I) A FIRST LINE FOCUSES ON THE PUBLIC ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE AGREEMENTS, (II) A SECOND ONE IS DEVOTED TO ASSESS THE IMPACTS OF DIFFERENT SCENARIOS ON THE SPANISH AND INTERNATIONAL ACTIVITY SECTORS, AND (III) THE THIRD ONE EXPLORES THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR FIRMS DECISION-MAKING WITH RESPECT TO INVESTMENTS IN NEW POWER PLANTS, LESS EMISSION-INTENSIVE TECHNOLOGIES, TRANSMISSION NETWORKS, PENETRATION OF RENEWABLES, AND OTHERS. THEREFORE, OUR RESEARCH ENCOMPASSES THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL CONTRIBUTIONS. THE METHODOLOGY INCLUDES INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELS, COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS, REAL OPTIONS APPROACH, AND STOCHASTIC OPTIMAL CONTROL MODELS. OUR RESEARCH AIMS TO BE USEFUL FOR PUBLIC REGULATORS AND PRIVATE AGENTS ALIKE, SINCE MOST OF THE MODELS INVOLVED ARE CALIBRATED TO THE SPANISH ECONOMY AND PARAMETER VALUES ARE TAKEN FROM ACTUAL FACILITIES AND MARKETS. OW CARBON ECONOMIES\FUTURE MARKETS\INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL AGREEMENTS\INVESTMENT UNDER UNCERTAINTY\MARKETABLE PERMITS\CARBON TAXES\ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY\CLIMATE CHANGE