GEM
Financiado
Great Expectations: Macroeconomic Implications of Forecasting Behavior
The goal of this proposal is to advance the research frontier on expectations formation and their economic impact. The proposal consists of three related projects that, through the provision of novel empirical evidence and the des...
The goal of this proposal is to advance the research frontier on expectations formation and their economic impact. The proposal consists of three related projects that, through the provision of novel empirical evidence and the design of a new theoretical framework, can guide future research and better inform policy decisions.
Recent empirical evidence suggests that expectations react to shocks sluggishly, but—one might argue—this may only be the case because data was gathered under stable economic conditions. We plan to explore the hypothesis that expectations quickly adapt and de-anchor in periods of economic turmoil. If, as we conjecture, expectations are state dependent, then a better understanding of the conditions under which stickiness persists is critical for policy. We exploit survey data on a larger-than-usual set of countries and uncover new properties of expectations.
How should central banks communicate to the public? Should countries promote financial literacy? Expectations’ data helps us answer these questions by indirectly revealing the models that agents use to make forecasts. We leverage the theory of Bayesian networks to build a theoretical framework in which a fraction of less sophisticated agents fails to consider a subset of relevant macroeconomic relationships. We discipline our model using novel evidence on cross-variable properties of expectations and deliver new, actionable lessons for policy and policy communication.
The recent debate on the role of monetary policy in speeding up the green transition has attracted much attention. Yet, the full extent to which monetary policy affects green firms is still unknown. We investigate, both empirically and theoretically, the impact of interest-rate expectations on investment by clean vs. dirty firms and innovation in clean technologies. Our preliminary evidence suggests that conventional monetary policy and forward guidance may have a sizable and long-lasting impact on the environment.
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Duración del proyecto: 64 meses
Fecha Inicio: 2023-05-17
Fecha Fin: 2028-09-30
Fecha Fin: 2028-09-30
Línea de financiación: concedida
El organismo HORIZON EUROPE notifico la concesión del proyecto el día 2023-05-17
Línea de financiación objetivo
El proyecto se financió a través de la siguiente ayuda:
ERC-2022-COG:
ERC CONSOLIDATOR GRANTS
Cerrada
hace 2 años
Presupuesto
El presupuesto total del proyecto asciende a
2M€
Líder del proyecto
UNIVERSITA COMMERCIALE LUIGI BOCCONI
No se ha especificado una descripción o un objeto social para esta compañía.
Perfil tecnológico
TRL
4-5
Perfil tecnológico
TRL
4-5