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BIRDCHANGE

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Exploring bird distribution drivers across differentspatial scales and time to p...

Exploring bird distribution drivers across differentspatial scales and time to predict the potential impact of global change on bird distributions and diversity Global change impacts on biodiversity, ecosystem processes and human well-being are a pressing scientific and political concern. One of the major goals of global change research is to reliably predict the future distributions of s... ver más

30/06/2015

MNHN

269K€

Presupuesto del proyecto: 269K€

Líder del proyecto

MUSEUM NATIONAL DHISTOIRE NATURELLE No se ha especificado una descripción o un objeto social para esta compañía.

TRL 4-5

Fecha límite participación Sin fecha límite de participación.

Financiación concedida El organismo FP7 notifico la concesión del proyecto el día 2015-06-30 No tenemos la información de la convocatoria

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MNHN

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Líder del proyecto

MUSEUM NATIONAL DHISTOIRE NATURELLE No se ha especificado una descripción o un objeto social para esta compañía.

TRL 4-5

Presupuesto del proyecto 269K€

Fecha límite de participación Sin fecha límite de participación.

Descripción del proyecto Global change impacts on biodiversity, ecosystem processes and human well-being are a pressing scientific and political concern. One of the major goals of global change research is to reliably predict the future distributions of species and to assess potential resulting consequences for the adaptive management of ecosystems and their services and for conservation strategies. Dramatically increased availability of biodiversity data at broad scales, recent advances in statistical approaches such as ‘species niche modelling’ and progress in high-performance computing now allow data handling and the simulation of future climatic and biodiversity scenarios. Despite the popularity of niche modelling for predicting the potential impacts of global change on species distributions, to date a validation of this approach at biogeographically relevant scales is lacking. Through the use of very extensive datasets of North American birds (starting in 1966), this project will assess the reliability of niche modelling predictions through cross-temporal validations. Such independent validation will also enable us to assess which predictors and what spatial scale provide most accurate predictions. Using this knowledge, I will then predict the potential impact of global change on North American bird distributions. Going beyond just species richness, I will also evaluate and predict changes to the functional and phylogenetic make-up of bird communities. Finally, where possible I will carefully extend several of these predictions of global change impacts to breeding and wintering communities of birds worldwide. This first global assessment will e.g. help identify, at biogeographic scales, migratory birds species potentially most affected by impending climatic changes or pinpoint areas where the bird diversity may be particularly exposed to future change. I expect the resulting findings to significantly advance broad-scale global change ecology and help inform conservation and policy.

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