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CGL2010-15892

Financiado

DESARROLLO DE UNA METODOLOGIA PARA EL USO DE ENTRADAS DE LLUVIA PROBABILISTICAS...

DESARROLLO DE UNA METODOLOGIA PARA EL USO DE ENTRADAS DE LLUVIA PROBABILISTICAS EN SISTEMAS DE ALERTA HIDROLOGICA SUCCESSFUL HYDROLOGICAL MANAGEMENT IN MEDITERRANEAN AREAS INCLUDES PRIORITIZING FLOOD EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS, ESPECIALLY IN SMALL- TO MEDIUM-SIZED BASINS, IN SUCH OPERATIONAL SYSTEMS, THE SIMULATION OF THE BASIN RESPONSE IS AFFECTE... ver más

01/01/2010

UPC

65K€

Presupuesto del proyecto: 65K€

Líder del proyecto

Universidad Politécnica de Cataluña No se ha especificado una descripción o un objeto social para esta compañía.

Total investigadores 9

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Financiación concedida El organismo AGENCIA ESTATAL DE INVESTIGACIÓN notifico la concesión del proyecto el día 2010-01-01

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Líder del proyecto

Universidad Politécnica de Cataluña

Total investigadores 9

Presupuesto del proyecto 65K€

Descripción del proyecto SUCCESSFUL HYDROLOGICAL MANAGEMENT IN MEDITERRANEAN AREAS INCLUDES PRIORITIZING FLOOD EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS, ESPECIALLY IN SMALL- TO MEDIUM-SIZED BASINS, IN SUCH OPERATIONAL SYSTEMS, THE SIMULATION OF THE BASIN RESPONSE IS AFFECTED BY A NUMBER OF ERRORS OF DIFFERENT NATURE, WHICH LIMITS THE PERFORMANCE OF THE MODEL, THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PROBABILISTIC APPROACH ABLE TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE RELIABILITY OF FLOW SIMULATIONS WOULD CERTAINLY BENEFIT THE OPERATORS IN CHARGED OF ISSUING WARNINGS AND DECISION-MAKING, THEY NOW BASE THEIR DECISIONS ON DETERMINISTIC FLOW SIMULATIONS,THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUCH A PROBABILISTIC APPROACH WOULD REQUIRE A COMPLETE DESCRIPTION OF THE DIFFERENT ERRORS AFFECTING HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION WITH RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS, ALTHOUGH INTENSE RESEARCH IN THIS TOPIC IS IN PROGRESS, THE CURRENT STATE OF THE METHODOLOGIES IN THIS DIRECTION DOES NOT PERMIT, YET, THE DEVELOPMENT OF SYSTEMS MONITORING THE OVERALL UNCERTAINTIES AFFECTING FLOW SIMULATIONS,THE AIM OF THE PROJECT PRESENTED HERE IS TO DEVELOP A METHODOLOGY TO COUPLE PROBABILISTIC RAINFALL INPUTS WITH A DISTRIBUTED RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODEL TO GENERATE PROBABILISTIC FLOW FORECASTS FOR FLOOD EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS, ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ONLY EXPLAIN A PART OF THE OVERALL UNCERTAINTY AFFECTING FLOW SIMULATIONS, IT WILL PROVIDE VALUABLE RESULTS ON THE PROPAGATION OF ERRORS AFFECTING RAINFALL INPUTS THROUGH THE HYDROLOGICAL MODEL, FROM AN OPERATIONAL PERSPECTIVE, IT WOULD INFORM DECISION MAKERS ABOUT THE EXPECTED UNCERTAINTIES DUE TO RAINFALL INPUTS (MAIN FORCING OF THE MODEL), AND A FIRST STEP TOWARD A FULL PROBABILISTIC SYSTEM,THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUCH A METHODOLOGY IS POSSIBLE NOWADAYS THANKS TO THE RECENT ADVANCEMENTS IN THE DESCRIPTION OF THE ERRORS AFFECTING REMOTE-SENSING RAINFALL PRODUCTS, THESE ADVANCEMENTS HAVE PROMOTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW METHODS FOR PRODUCING PROBABILISTIC RAINFALL PRODUCTS BASED ON THE GENERATION OF ENSEMBLES OF POSSIBLE RAINFALL SCENARIOS,THE MAIN OBJECTIVES OF THE PROJECT ARE (I) THE DEVELOPMENT OF METHOD FOR THE GENERATION OF RAINFALL ENSEMBLES THAT OVERCOMES THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LIMITATIONS OF THOSE EXISTING NOWADAYS (E,G, SPATIAL STATIONARITY OF THE SIMULATIONS), (II) COMBINE THIS PROBABILISTIC RAINFALL GENERATOR WITH A DISTRIBUTED RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODEL TO RUN IN ENSEMBLE MODE, (III) IMPLEMENT THE METHODOLOGY TO PRODUCE PROBABILISTIC FLOW FORECASTS IN THE BESOS AND LLOBREGAT BASINS (1020 AND 5040 KM2, RESPECTIVELY; CATALUNYA, NE SPAIN), AND (IV) QUANTIFY THE PROPAGATION OF ERRORS IN RAINFALL INPUTS THROUGH THE HYDROLOGICAL MODEL IN TERMS OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN FLOW SIMULATIONS,THE CATALAN WATER AGENCY (RESPONSIBLE OF THE HYDROLOGICAL MANAGEMENT OF THE BESOS AND LLOBREGAT BASINS, AND EPO OF THE PROJECT) WILL MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE PROJECT AND PROVIDE FEEDBACK ABOUT THE INTEREST OF THE RESULTS,

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